Prices up again triggered by ongoing events in the Middle East

Gas prices resumed their upward trajectory at the NBP on Thursday, rising for a fourth consecutive session.

The ongoing US–Iran conflict remains the primary source of support, now entering its ninth week with little sign of an imminent resolution.

While the extension of the US ceasefire earlier this week has likely capped near-term prices, the longer-term outlook for the conflict remains uncertain.

Supply fundamentals also tightened, with Norwegian pipeline flows to the UK falling over the past week due to major planned outages at the Troll field, the Kollsnes processing facility, and other key assets.

Meanwhile, EU gas storage stands at 30.82%, nearly seven percentage points below last year, underscoring the scale of the refilling challenge ahead.

Weaker renewable output drove power prices higher in line with gains across the wider energy complex.

Wind generation fell by around half in yesterday’s session, tightening prompt markets and offsetting recent improvements in supply.

Additional support came from strength on adjacent fuel markets, with gas, oil, carbon and coal all posting gains on the day.

The broad-based strength across energy markets reinforced upside pressures along the power curve, anchoring prices despite otherwise mixed fundamentals.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power