NBP prices firm up around uncertainty around Middle East shipping flows

NBP prices firmed on Thursday as participants reassessed regional supply tightness following continued uncertainty around Middle East shipping flows and limited near-term LNG inflows.

Support was most pronounced at the front end of the curve, where prompt and near-curve contracts pushed higher on renewed risk premium.

Further along the curve, gains were more muted as curve contracts remained anchored by a gradually improving storage outlook. Geopolitical instability remains heightened and the absence of fresh de-escalation headlines helped sustain prices, with markets remaining sensitive to any signals that could materially alter flows through key LNG transit routes.

The power curve also nudged higher yesterday, tracking firmer sentiment across the wider energy complex as geopolitical uncertainty persisted and fuel markets stabilised.

Strength was driven largely by gas-linked support, which filtered through to power despite mixed system fundamentals.

On the supply side, wind generation remained subdued earlier in the week, tightening available output and lending support to near-term pricing.

However, contracts further along the curve were more subdued, reflecting more comfortable supply expectations for contracts further out.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power