Market posts fourth consecutive day of rises amid war in Middle East

The market posted it’s fourth consecutive session of gains on Thursday, with Summer 26 closing at circa 152p/therm (5.2p/kWh), the highest settlement price of any front-season contract since February 2023.

Intraday price movements were erratic, with a strong upward push during morning trade weakening by the end of the session, but frequent swings characterised the trading turbulent trading environment, with participants on heightened alert due to due quickly developing events from the Middle East.

Qatar has said that exports from its major Ras Laffan LNG facility could take years to return to previous levels following Iranian strikes earlier this week.

Before the war, Qatar was considered to be the second largest LNG exporter in the world.

Renewable generation continued to decline on Thursday, playing into the underlying bullish sentiment from the Middle East conflict.

According to data from Elexon, wind generation averaged only 3.1GW across yesterday, a stark contrast compared to 18.5GW recorded for Tuesday.

Natural gas (CCGT), which is currently trading roughly twice as high as the same time last month, served as the largest source of generation at 12.2GW (36.3% of the GB power mix).

Carbon prices have seen a swift reversal this morning, with the primary European benchmark currently being offered at circa €68/tonne, which is almost 7% higher than yesterdays close.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power