Prices surge following widespread air strikes across Middle East

NBP gas prices surged on Monday, with the Summer 26 contract trading at the highest level of any front-season contract since February 2025 following reports of widespread strikes on industrial and military infrastructure across the Middle East.

Several countries across the Persian Gulf were caught in the crossfire yesterday as the US and Israel engaged in renewed clashes with Iran.

Explosions were reported after missile debris struck the Ras Tanura oil refinery in Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s largest.

Qatar has also suspended LNG production due to safety concerns, affecting about 20% of global supply of the fuel. Overnight, Iran formally paused access to the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping route, threatening to engage any vessels attempting to pass.

The baseload power curve followed the NBP bull run on Monday, with fluctuating renewable output offering support to the prompt and front-month contracts all while bullishness across the wider energy complex and heightened geopolitical and supply-side risk premium offered support to contracts further out.

The benchmarks for natural gas and brent crude posted gains of 34.7% and 6.7% receptively, indicating that more risk premium may have been priced into the oil market ahead of this recent escalation.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power