NBP remains volatile amid low EU gas storage levels

Volatility remained heightened at the NBP on Tuesday. Summer 26’s prices apparent retest of Friday’s close fell just short, but Winter26 managed to close slightly above that level.

Bullish sentiment softened across near-term contracts February and March, likely as market focus shifted away from immediate demand/weather concerns and toward weak storage levels in Continental Europe and the restocking challenges that lie ahead.

Unplanned maintenance in the UK and Norway served as a secondary source of support. Operational data shows 6mcm/d was offline at the UK’s Barrow terminal and 5mcm/d was unavailable at Norway’s Gullfaks field, squeezing pipeline flows into Great Britain (National Gas, Gassco).

EU storage is now below 50% and at a deficit of 11 percentage points vs same time last year.

A rebound in renewable generation helped to limit the extent of gains across the power market when compared to NBP counterparts.

According to data from Elexon, wind power averaged at a rate of 18.8GW (46.2% of the GB mix), a sharp increase from 7.5GW on Monday that weighed heavily on gas-fired (CCGT) power demand.

With that said, system demand remains elevated, rising slightly on the day, which coincided with a drop in interconnector imports from neighbouring system operators such as France, the Netherlands and Norway.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power