Wholesale bounces up as December LNG deliveries are projected to fall short

The NBP saw a continued upward correction on Thursday as the Summer 26 bears continued to encounter unyielding psychological support below 65p/therm.

Market participants continued to assess the British supply and demand balance with a laser focus.

LNG deliveries are meeting a healthy share of supply for the time being, but December deliveries are projected to fall short when compared to the same time last year. This presents an emerging risk element as storage levels in continental Europe are around 10% lower on the year and the January/February demand outlook remains uncertain.

Steady Norwegian and UKCS (Beach) flows continue to reinforce confidence, serving as a price ceiling for the near-curve and limiting bullish potential.

The baseload power curve found support from strength on the natural gas market, with elevated carbon prices still serving as a prominent bullish driver. A second day of gains came despite ample renewable generation.

Wind output reached 18.1GW on Thursday, comprising 48.4% of the GB power mix, with gas easing down to just 6.3GW (15.9%) on higher exports and lower system demand.

Exports via the UK’s interconnectors with Europe saw a swift uptick, more than doubling to 6.8GW (17.7%) day-on-day. While helpful for balancing out fluctuations in wind, exports come at a premium when compared to domestic generation.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power