Prices retrace as LNG deliveries slow up
Prices retraced slightly on Tuesday, with the Summer 26 front-season contract posting modest gains of circa 1.1p/therm (0.04p/kWh) when compared to its previous settlement.
After encountering firm technical support at 4 ½ year lows, the market seemingly swung higher to retest psychological resistance at 65p/therm, though trades ultimately failed to hold above this level, prompting the market to weaken into the close.
Slowing LNG deliveries when compared to the same time last month are likely drawing underlying support to the near-curve but strong, uninterrupted North Sea production, alongside a bearish demand outlook, are quelling supply-side concerns for now.
A bullish wider energy complex propelled UK baseload power prices higher on Tuesday, despite surging wind generation. An upward correction on the NBP, alongside strength on the European carbon market, served as the primary source of support.
According to data from ICE, the Carbon EUA (Dec-25) benchmark contract lifted 1.1% day-on-day, supporting the cost of fossil fuel generation region-wide.
With that said, wind generation continued to rise on Tuesday, averaging 20.8GW and meeting approximately 55% of system demand.
Gas-fired generation held fairly consistent (Monday 4.8GW, Tuesday 5.0GW), despite a slight increase in demand from 36.7GW to 38.2GW (data from Elexon).
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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power 