Prices nudge lower in absence of any major geopolitical news

NBP gas prices edged lower on Wednesday, briefly dipping below a key psychological level.

The Winter 25 front-season contract was seen trading just shy of 90p/therm, ultimately posting modest losses of just over 1p/therm (0.03p/kWh) when compared to its previous settlement.

Short term supply fundamentals were relatively unchanged, a slight increase in Norwegian supply to Great Britain (4.5mcm) when compared to the previous gas day, was offset by an unplanned compressor outage at the UK’s Perenco Dimlington, which removed 4.7mcm of UKCS production.

No change to our 14-day model, which maintains that demand will average just below seasonal norms until at least 6th August.

In the absence of major geopolitical news, short-term supply and demand fundamentals continue to nudge at both gas and power prices, holding them in a narrow range.

Power generation has been relatively consistent so far this week, despite gas serving as the largest source of power, weakness on the NBP curve and forecasts of higher wind generation in week 31 likely helped to guide baseload prices lower.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power