Unplanned maintenance increases wholesale gas prices
NBP gas prices struggled to establish a clear direction on Monday as details emerged following major UK-EU talks.
Unplanned maintenance may have contributed to small gains along the near-curve. Data from Norway’s Gassco shows that 18.5mcm/d was offline at the Kollsnes processing facility due to ‘process problems’, with an uncertain duration.
This comes ahead of planned maintenance tomorrow (21st) when, planned maintenance will lift total offline capacity to 173.97mcm, the highest level planned for 2025.
The risk of additional or delayed unplanned works could have an amplified bullish effect due to greater strain on European gas systems to maintain system balance and storage injections.
News that the EU and UK will work towards linking their Emission Trading Schemes (ETS) may have applied pressure to the power curve, keeping upside to a minimum.
The benchmark EU Carbon Allowance (EUA) December 2025 contract dipped slightly by 0.8%, while the UK Allowance (UKA) surged 8.4%, narrowing the gap between the two markets following the announcement.
The cost of carbon allowances plays a critical role in shaping fossil fuel economics. Sustained increases in carbon prices can significantly deter carbon intensive gas, oil, and coal-fired power generation across Europe, enhancing the cost competitiveness of renewables and influencing investment.
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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power 