Mixed moves in the wholesale market as demand falls

On Wednesday, NBP gas prices continued to trade within a narrow range, exhibiting small, mixed movements in both directions.

The near-curve softened slightly on the back of mild demand forecasts, all while contracts further out mirrored strength from the carbon market.

The latest run of our 14-day model indicates that demand will average well-below seasonal norms until at least 7th May. This trend coincides with forecasts of above-average temperatures across Northwest Europe in weeks 17 and 18, which typically reduce heating demand and influence gas consumption patterns.

Elsewhere within the wider energy complex, ICE data shows that the Carbon EUA benchmark saw daily gains of approximately 3.9%. This increase likely fed support into the far-curve due to the carbon markets role in determining wholesale prices.

Market participants will continue to monitor updates regarding tariffs on the UK, EU, and other markets over the next few weeks.

These developments could introduce further volatility in both financial and energy markets, as changes in tariffs can significantly impact trade flows and demand expectations.

This morning, the NBP has opened in bearish mode, with the Winter 25 front-season contract last trading around 2p/therm (0.07p/kWh) below its previous settlement and currently holding just north of the 90p/therm psychological level.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power